Oil going higher?

I mentioned on the Video Report 2 weeks ago that crude was looking good. It has then since run up a few Dollars. Was reading this report and found it interesting

I received another scratchy, crackling cell phone call from my drilling buddy in the Texas natural gas fields today. You could almost choke from the dust on the line.

He told me that the BP Gulf disaster was turning the fundamental assumptions of the oil industry upside down, and that sharply higher oil prices were in the cards, probably $100/barrel by year end.

Major oil companies with deep pockets at risk were rushing to offload their existing offshore leases and partnerships in producing wells to avoid BP’s potential $30 billion hickey. - Source - Apologize for the inappropriate language.

Skype files for IPO

Skype, which expects to trade on Nasdaq, has drawn a large number of customers with free computer-to-computer services while a small percentage of its customers use Skype to make calls to traditional phones at discounted rates.

Atlantic Equities analyst Chris Watts said Skype's owners may see an IPO filing as a way to publicize the company in the hope that a strategic investor buys it outright.
Watts said that while Skype's growth has been impressive, investors eyeing publicly traded shares would be cautious about its prospects for revenue growth.

"That's the strongest point they have but it's also their problem," Watts said. "It's a very, very difficult business to value. The issue for most people is going to be: yes, they've got a very substantial subscriber base but a lot of their subscribers just aren't generating a lot of revenue." - Source

Freddie needs $1.8 bil from taxpayers

Mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) on Monday said it would need another $1.8 billion in aid from taxpayers, bringing its total request since it was taken over by the government two years ago to more than $64 billion. - Source

Food Shortage = Higher Prices

The world faces an inflationary time bomb as shortages of food threaten to push prices to fresh all-time highs.

A variety of freakish weather conditions across the world has sent the price of staples including wheat, pork, rice, orange juice, coffee, cocoa and tea to fresh highs in recent weeks. Yesterday's decision by the Russian government to ban the export of wheat to protect home consumers saw grain prices jump 8 per cent on the day, on what was already a two-year high. Meanwhile, the burgeoning demand for foodstuffs and raw material growth in the resurgent economies of China and India has also driven oil, copper and other industrial commodities higher.- Source

Future Transportation in China

China has overtaken the United States as the world's biggest producer of greenhouse gases and biggest energy consumer.

But the country is also thinking in big and bold ways when it comes to how it will reduce pollution and a new plan to build a "straddling bus" is among the most space-age schemes yet.

In an effort to go green and relieve congestion without widening roads, the Shenzhen Huashi Future Parking Equipment company is developing a "3D Express Coach" ("three-dimensional fast bus").

The innovation will allow cars less than 2 meters high to travel underneath the upper level of the vehicle, which will be carrying passengers (PHOTOS).
According to China Hush, the 6-meter-wide 3D Express Coach will be powered by a combination of electricity and solar energy, and will be able to travel up to 60 kilometers per hour carrying some 1200 to 1400 passengers.

The first 115 miles of track is set for construction in Beijing's Mentougou district starting in late 2010. The Chairman of the Huashi Future Parking Equipment company boasts it will take only a year and 500 million yuan (around $73 million) to build the futuristic transportation system.  - Source

Successor to Warren Buffett

Twenty-one years ago, Li Lu was a student leader of the Tiananmen Square protests. Now a hedge-fund manager, he is in line to become a successor to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Mr. Li, 44 years old, has emerged as a leading candidate to run a chunk of Berkshire's $100 billion portfolio, stemming from a close friendship with Charlie Munger, Berkshire's 86-year-old vice chairman. In an interview, Mr. Munger revealed that Mr. Li was likely to become one of the top Berkshire investment officials. "In my mind, it's a foregone conclusion," Mr. Munger said.

The job of filling Mr. Buffett's shoes is among the most high-profile succession stories in modern corporate history. Mr. Buffett, who will turn 80 in a month, says he has no current plans to step down and will likely split his job after he leaves the company into separate CEO and investing functions. Mr. Li's emergence as a contender to oversee Berkshire investments is the first time a name has been identified to fill the investment part of Mr. Buffett's legendary role.

The development illustrates that Berkshire is moving toward putting in place—possibly sooner than investors anticipated—certain aspects of its succession plan. - Source

China Slowest in 17 Months

China’s manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in 17 months in July as the government clamped down on property speculation and investment in energy-intensive and polluting factories.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 51.2 from 52.1 in June, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on its website yesterday. A reading above 50 shows an expansion. A separate China PMI is due to be released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

A deeper Chinese slowdown could weaken a global recovery already constrained by the debt burdens and unemployment of advanced economies. While growth is cooling, China’s full-year expansion may be as much as 9.5 percent, up from 9.1 percent in 2009, State Council researcher Zhang Liqun said yesterday. - Source

VR 7 30 2010

 

Things mentioned. Silver (SLV), Gold (GLD), INDU, NDX, US Dollar and Light Crude (WTIC).

Sorry for the crackling. I traced it to the mic. Will get a better one for next week!

Today and Past

Here is the INDU a year ago.

CHECK OUT THE VIDEO REVIEW FOR THE WEEK!!!!!!!

1st Video Review!!!

Best if viewed at 720 minimum.

I am sorry for how amatuer the first video is but I really wanted to try this instead of posting charts.

Tell me what you think!!!

Why Charts + Sentiment?

Charts - Cannot lie

Easy!!! Huge institutions usually leave tracks on where they think the market is going: Volume provides clues as to the intensity of that trend. 

Volume

Volume is the number of shares traded during a time frame (e.g., hour, day, week, month, etc.). The analysis of volume is a simple but very important for the of technical analyst. Volume gives clues as to the intensity of a price move. 

Trend

Refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs form an uptrend; falling peaks and troughs form a downtrend. A trading range is characterized by horizontal peaks and troughs. Trends are generally classified into major (longer than a year), intermediate (one to six months), or short (less than a month).

Sentiment - Crowd is usually wrong

Psychology! What is being traded is people, not stocks. People never change...most traders keep on making the same mistakes again and again. That is good for us!

Open Interest 

Open interest for options is very similar to shares outstanding for stocks. Open interest helps to gauge sentiment in the options market. The higher the put/call open interest ratio, the more negativity on the index or equity. The lower the put/call open interest ratio, the more optimism there is. 

Short Interest 

The number of shares that bearish traders and investors have sold short is an equity’s short interest. This data is issued by the major stock exchanges. When short selling the investor hopes that the stock’s price will decline, permitting a future repurchase of the shares at a lower price to repay the lender.

NDX 100 (7 21 10)

Quick mid week post!

 We have a battle in our hands! We're in the 7th round, of 12, and the bull is a little dazed. He's lost the last 2 rounds but looks somewhat determined to get back in it.

Is the bear a tad cocky or is he confident? He lost 3 rounds in a row after a monster debut. However he's had 2 good rounds and doesn't seem like he wants to let go.

Report 7 16 10

Howdy. Not a bad week over all. However that last day was a bit of a bummer. When I have a tad more time I will try and do a mid week analysis. Let's get this part started!

Naz 100

Mid Month Look

The markets are faring well this month. The only exception is the Russell. Oil has done the best while the US Dollar is having a bad month. The precious metals are lagging and perhaps are entering into a consolidation phase. We'll look more into that next week unless I have some time during the week.

Conclusion:
So far this month is looking decent for the bulls. Even if we pull back a tad more it will still be an up month. In and out of small trades is best.

We are most definitely positioning ourselves for a huge rally. This rally will come when most will not expect it. Most will not want to jump in and be too afraid. HOWEVER, I still feel we have a tad more downside. There is not enough fear out there and complacency has sunk in. Don't think so? Look at this!

Look at the volatility of the Nasdaq 100 and the S+P and notice that it is not as high as previous, when we had big down days and weeks, and we are lower then previous times!!! Oh the complacency = trouble!!!

Enjoy your trading!!!

Confession 11

Almost half the Dow reports this week. Here is the list:

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM)
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO)
United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX)
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM)
AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T)
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TRV)
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP)
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)
McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD)
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ)

More Bite the Dust

Regulators shut down 3 banks in Florida, 2 in South Carolina and 1 in Michigan. 96 closures nationwide this year is far more than 2009, which was already a brisk year for shutdowns. By this time last year, regulators had closed 57 banks.

As losses have mounted he growing bank failures have sapped billions of dollars out of the deposit insurance fund. It fell into the red last year, and its deficit stood at $20.7 billion as of March 31.

Yahoo

Central Banks Abandon $

Last week, the United Nations released a report concluding that the dollar should no longer be the world's reserve currency because it is not stable enough. The dollar is down 5% over the past month, and even currency traders don't see it as a safe haven any more.

 

Just last week, America's debt lept $166 billion in a single day. That one-day run-up is greater than the entire U.S. annual deficit in 2007.

Forbes

Fed Reserve Worries

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's list of worries may be getting longer.

A fading recovery, persistently high unemployment, Europe's debt troubles and commercial real estate losses have garnered most of the attention. But some Fed officials have begun talking more about another trouble zone -- recession-hit U.S. state and local government finances.

Full article here

Report 7 9 10

Hope you all had a great weekend. It was really hot this week in NY but it "cooled" down for the weekend. The markets have also been scorching! Will they also "cool down?"

Last week we mentioned that we were closing in on a short term bottom. Let's analyze to see what may be up ahead for this week

Naz 100

Dow

Interesting note before leaving:

Over the last 6 decades, between August and October, the S+P 500 has had 33 up years, nothing special. However, when you add up the losses of the remaining years the bears still win as the S+P in this time frame has totaled a negative return of around 20%!!!

I will point out that when the market trades lower in these time frames it really trades lower! 7 years have been 10% or more. 3 years have been 15% or more.

What I Confirmed Long Ago

People are beginning to see and realize that the Dow is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern. About time!

I saw this early to mid 09 and showed it to a few colleagues at work. As usual people don't like negative news or underestimate the validity of technicians. Not all are the same my friends.


 Click here for source

US - $2Bil For Solar

Nearly $2bn in loan guarantees will be given to two companies to kick-start the US solar energy industry, President Barack Obama has announced.

One of the firms, Abengoa Solar, says that it is planning to build the largest solar power plant in the world in Arizona.

Full article here.

Question. Does the US not have solar companies?