IMF Report

US empire could collapse at any time, Pulitzer winner says

Hedges said that another pressure point is the US dollar, which he pointed out had been dropped by Russia and China in favor of modified ruble/renminbi exchanges.

"A few more deals like that, and our currency becomes junk," he said.

Hedges continued, "As long as we have relative stability, these lunatic fringe movements can be held at bay, but if we don't undertake serious structural reform, which we're not doing, then it is inevitable that we will come to a tremendous crisis - economic and political as well as environmental."

Link

A Few Charts

Weekly SLV

Daily SLV

Monthly US Dollar

Weekly US Dollar

Silver loosing it's shine? May be.

AAPL - Weekly Candlesticks

Apple has had a huge run. If you look at the RSI, MACD and $ flow they have been lower as the stock has been going up = losing steam = negative divergence.

It is hard to go against the trend. Until the trend is broken a stop loss or hedging with a put is best.

Look at the volume on down days. There is most certainly distribution going on.

NDX Weekly 10/13/10

Sometimes people tell me that I make calls and I change fast or that the calls I make are on point but sometimes don't "last" long.

I AM A SHORT TERM TRADER. IT IS FOOLISH TO BE A LONG TERM TRADER UNLESS THE TREND IS SHOWING THIS. THE LAST TIME WE HAD THAT SIGNAL WAS AFTER THE 00-02 DEBACLE.

Unfortunately I do not have the time to keep tabs on the markets like I'd like. I will provide short videos to help soon. I will give you a taste of the "knowledge". :)

The US Dollar 12 Years +

Freestockcharts is awesome! I use it with stockcharts.com. Both are worthy of paid subscription!

The Greenback has taken a beaten year after year after year. It has formed a higher low since the "bottom" of 08. The MACD and the RSI have been weaker considering that the pattern has been similar since last year. The $ flow has been week as well.

The 2 year trend is in tact and major support is around 75. If that is broken then 70 should be next.

Enjoy your trading - No, no comment. Too tough to call. Caution as usual.

INDU Monthly Update

GLD - Daily Candlesticks

This is super heavy volume. Silver and gold gapped up and closed lower on this volume forming a bearish engulfing, a candlestick pattern.

This could be the beginning of the end for the metals luster. At least temporarily.

NDX 9 30 10

Update NDX

$NDX - Daily Candlesticks: "


About a week ago I posted a question about the rally ending. I did not think it was so I did not comment further. It was heavy volume and it did pull back to the 10 day moving average.

On big up trends the rule is buy on every pullback until it stops working.

Now I am starting to see that we could be experiencing distribution. Too early to call but we're looking like we did in mid April b4 the fall. Need a tad more time.

Quotes of the month

It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours - Harry S Truman

I would rather live my life as if there is a God and die to find out there isn't, than live my life as if there isn't and die to find out there is - Albert Camus

Rally done?

$NDX - Daily Candlesticks








Heavy volume and formed a doji on the candlesticks. 2k is major resistance so there may not be enough steam left to break through. Pullback is in order. Will recalculate once this applies. If it closes above 2k with good volume, then still has steam left. Doubt it though.

London Metal Exchange, Belly Up?

NDX 8 26 2010

U.S. Next Bear Stearns?

Trennert sees two possible explanations.

“First, you want the deficit to look as low as possible now, so you keep your interest expenses low,” Trennert said.

“The other reason is more frightening. Marginal buyers of debt, in particular the Chinese, have shown they don’t want to lend long-term. They want the leverage that comes with having Uncle Sam go back to them every week or two.”

That means the deficit could represent a national security issue, Trennert says. “I don’t want to be overly conspiratorial, but certainly you’re conceding some sovereignty when you fund yourself this way.”

Video Report 8 22 10

Gold is looking much better than Silver. I like silver a lot but technically I don't see it going higher... Looks like it is weakening and perhaps even on the verge of breaking major support. Would love that so that I can buy more!

China dumped record US Treasuries

China cut its holdings of Treasury notes and bonds by the most ever, raising speculation a plunge in U.S. yields that sent two-year rates to a record low has made government securities unattractive.

The Asian nation’s holdings of long-term Treasuries fell by $21.2 billion in June to $839.7 billion, a U.S. government report showed yesterday. Total Chinese investment in U.S. debt declined 2.8 percent to $843.7 billion, the least in a year, following a 3.6 percent slide in May.

China, America’s largest creditor, is cutting back after scrapping its currency peg in June, giving it less reason to buy dollars and invest them in Treasuries. China is also turning more bullish on Europe and Japan, purchasing bonds of both nations. The shift comes as President Barack Obama increases U.S. debt to record levels, counting on overseas investors to buy, as he borrows to sustain the U.S. economic expansion.- Source

Foreigners Dump US Securities

Foreigners were net sellers of U.S. securities in June for the first time in five months, but increased their purchases of long-term instruments such as U.S. government debt, the Treasury Department said on Monday.

Overseas investors sold a net $6.7 billion of U.S. securities in June, including short-term instruments such as Treasury bills. They were net buyers to the tune of $17.1 billion in May, according to the latest Treasury calculations. - Source

On Mini Vacay!

Will be back next week... :)

U.S. Is Bankrupt

Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.

What it can and must do is radically simplify its tax, health-care, retirement and financial systems, each of which is a complete mess. But this is the good news. It means they can each be redesigned to achieve their legitimate purposes at much lower cost and, in the process, revitalize the economy.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund released its annual review of U.S. economic policy. Its summary contained these bland words about U.S. fiscal policy: “Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal stabilization, but noted that a larger than budgeted adjustment would be required to stabilize debt-to-GDP.”

But delve deeper, and you will find that the IMF has effectively pronounced the U.S. bankrupt. Section 6 of the July 2010 Selected Issues Paper says: “The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP.”

The fiscal gap is the value today (the present value) of the difference between projected spending (including servicing official debt) and projected revenue in all future years.- Bloomberg